Tullett Prebon
Research
About Tim Morgan
Tim Morgan read History and Political Philosophy at Emmanuel College, Cambridge before joining stockbrokers Wood Mackenzie as a trainee in 1982. He moved to Montagu Loebl Stanley the following year, shortly thereafter assuming responsibility for the firm’s oil and gas research.
In 1985, he joined the stockbroking subsidiary of Exco, which became part of Banque Indosuez in 1986. After a short period with a boutique broker, he established an energy sector research consultancy in 1990.
During the 1980s, he had made two important decisions. First, that the prevalent earnings-based investment analysis was out-dated, and that the emphasis of research needed to shift to cash-based measurement of shareholder value creation. The second was that single-country research was inappropriate in an increasingly globalised economy. These decisions led him to develop the value-based VVM™ analysis system.
Between 1995 and 2006, Tim was consultant energy analyst at Collins Stewart, a stockbroking firm which achieved rapid growth on a platform of research originality and technological excellence. He joined Shore Capital Group, again as a consultant energy analyst, in May 2007, but, in February 2009, was invited to formalise a role that he had been carrying out for some time – that of economic and market strategist.
In this role, he attracted considerable notice for a report in which he warned that a decade of economic mismanagement had taken Britain to the brink of a “debt vortex”. This built upon an earlier report which contended that recent UK economic growth had been largely illusory, being based upon debt escalation and the understatement of inflation. He also pioneered the three-part Matrix™ approach to investing in periods of high systemic risk.
Whilst retaining a keen interest in energy, his current research focus is on the implications of an accelerating process of change in the global economy. He believes that this process is exposing a series of major economic, financial and political imbalances, and that it is imperative that financial market participants be keenly aware of the structural implications of this process.
Tim’s extra-curricular interests focus on defence issues, the environment, music and community involvement. He has a particular interest in warships, has published a book on the subject, and has relished time spent at sea with the Royal Navy, believing that few experiences can equal taking off from an aircraft carrier or participating in amphibious exercises with the Royal Marine Commandos.
